NFL odds: How sharp bettors are taking part in Packers-Bucs, Week 3 video games

By patrick everson
FOX Sports activities Playing Author

There is not any actual debate about which sport is the most important on this week’s NFL betting market. How will you argue in any other case whenever you get two first-ballot Corridor of Fame quarterbacks going through one another?

Are you aware what’s even higher? People on either side of the counter have loads to say about Tom Brady and his Tampa Bay Buccaneers internet hosting Aaron Rodgers and the Inexperienced Bay Packers.

Following are insights on that conflict and a number of other extra betting nuggets on NFL Week 3 odds and school soccer Week 4 odds.

Rodgers vs. Brady

Sharp bettors aren’t at all times going to get it proper. In the event that they did, they’d all be millionaires. However they put much more effort and time into evaluation, analytics, fashions and such. So they have a tendency to make way more knowledgeable wagers than … properly, me, you and most of the people who wager on sports activities.

One skilled bettor I join with repeatedly felt nice concerning the Saints +3 on the unfold final week. However the Buccaneers’ protection had one other robust effort, and New Orleans misplaced 20-10.

Nonetheless, this sharp participant is simply high quality fading the Bucs once more this week. Tampa Bay’s wideout corps is both suspended (Mike Evans) or coping with accidents (Chris Godwin/Julio Jones). And the Bucs’ offensive line is banged up, too, heading into this nationwide FOX broadcast at 4:25 pm ET Sunday.

“The Tampa O-line is a catastrophe. Inexperienced Bay is the play. I took the Packers +3 opener,” he stated. “Inexperienced Bay is stable within the trenches on either side. Brady has weapons banged up and suspended.”

You may’t get Packers +3 anymore, as that line was solely out there early within the week. Relying on the place you wager, Inexperienced Bay is now right down to a 1.5-point or 1-point underdog, as a result of the wiseguys did not cease at +3.

“We took a wager from a revered participant on the Packers +2 Tuesday,” WynnBet dealer John Manica stated, noting his store is amongst these with the Packers at +1.

Uncommon State of affairs

Most oddsmakers will want the Indianapolis Colts this weekend to get it collectively and present up towards the Kansas Metropolis Chiefs. Rex Beyers, now head of wagering at PlayUp USA after earlier stops at The SuperBook and Caesars Sports activities, amongst others, expects to be within the uncommon spot of needing the Chiefs.

“The Colts have appeared completely abysmal and terrible. They’re banged up, and so they weren’t superb final week,” Beyers stated, noting Indy’s gorgeous 24-0 loss at Jacksonville. “Now the Colts come house towards a staff that is coming off further relaxation.”

Certainly, KC beat the Los Angeles Chargers 27-24 within the Week 2 Thursday evening sport. But the Colts have gotten robust curiosity at PlayUp.

“In the event you give me one staff to win the Tremendous Bowl proper now, I might take the Chiefs,” Beyers stated. “My energy ranking makes this sport Chiefs -6. However there’s an All-Star staff of wiseguys on the ‘canine at +6.5 and +6, and that is why this sport is at 5.5. As issues stand proper now, we’re gonna want the Chiefs, so we’ll be within the minority. It may change, however I do not assume it’s going to.”

The matchup has a 1 pm ET kickoff.

“It is gonna be a sport the place we have now to carry on and hope the Colts are as unhealthy as we expect they’re,” Beyers stated, whereas noting Indianapolis may really be that unhealthy. “The quantity is large. That is a Colts staff that was embarrassed final week, and I might anticipate a hair-on-fire effort from them.”

Excessive-Flying Offenses

Everybody is aware of Josh Allen and the Buffalo Payments can put up factors. However folks came upon within the fourth quarter of Miami’s Week 2 upset of Baltimore that the Dolphins can rating, too. Trailing 35-14 coming into the fourth quarter, Tua Tagovailoa & Co. scored 4 touchdowns and gained 42-38.

That led to fairly a change within the whole.

“The Payments-Dolphins whole opened between 50 and 51 on [last week’s] look-ahead numbers,” WynnBet’s Manica stated. “Then we noticed the Dolphins put up a late offensive show, coupled with the Payments’ [41-7] beatdown of the Titans, and a considerable transfer on the Over occurred rapidly to as excessive as 54.”

There was some resistance as soon as the entire received to 54, bringing the entire right down to 52.5 by midweek.

“I consider most fashions have this whole decrease, as two divisional opponents will collide. I would not be stunned if we see this shut decrease than the present market of 52.5 or 53,” Manica stated.

again to highschool

We interrupt all this NFL data to convey you a nugget on school soccer Week 4 odds. Fourth-ranked Michigan goals to maintain rolling in its Massive Ten opener at house, towards fellow unbeaten Maryland at midday ET Saturday on FOX.

WynnBet opened the Wolverines as 17.5-point house favorites, dipped to -17 nearly instantly on Sunday night, then went to -16.5 a short while after that. WynnBet continues to be at -16.5, whereas most sportsbooks are at -17.

“We wrote a considerable variety of tickets on Michigan at costs under the present market of -17,” Manica stated. “Michigan has performed weak opponents and faces a step up in competitors. I consider you will note a flood of cash on Maryland if the market goes previous 17, and certain plenty of Michigan backers at any quantity decrease than that.”

Sunday Evening Shuffle

OK, again to the NFL. One of many largest line strikes of the week to this point is within the Sunday evening conflict between the San Francisco 49ers and Denver Broncos. Denver opened a consensus 2.5-point favourite, however the line jumped the fence by Monday, and San Fran is now -1.5.

And that is with the Niners shedding beginning QB Trey Lance for the season after he suffered a damaged ankle final weekend. The aforementioned sharp bettor actually likes the 49ers with Jimmy Garoppolo again below heart.

“I took San Francisco +2.5 when it opened,” he stated. “Previous to the season, I discussed what Russell Wilson is for Denver – a below-average QB. Denver is banged up, as properly. And the 49ers are higher off with Jimmy G at QB.”

WynnBet’s Manica famous the early Niners love this week, too.

“The Broncos haven’t handed the attention take a look at of their two video games, towards what most take into account to be two of the weaker groups within the NFL,” Manica stated, alluding to a loss at Seattle and a wrestle to beat visiting Houston. “We’re seeing a step up in competitors for the Broncos towards a sound 49ers squad. San Francisco is an angle a number of folks like. The staff is in some methods aided by the lack of Lance, in that it reduces the consequence variance that they might have with a youthful quarterback.

“Jimmy G has a robust document below Shanahan and can attempt to take benefit, because the Broncos are nonetheless attempting to determine it out with the brand new items they’ve in place.”

chargersQB Quandary

Justin Herbert appeared fairly good within the Week 2 Thursday evening sport at Kansas Metropolis. He had the Chargers getting ready to taking a fourth-quarter lead earlier than throwing an interception that was returned 99 yards for a landing. Los Angeles went on to lose 27-24, although the Bolts lined as 4-point street underdogs.

However, late within the sport, Herbert suffered a rib cartilage damage, and it is nonetheless unclear if he’ll play in Sunday’s 4:05 pm ET kickoff towards the Jacksonville Jaguars.

Nonetheless, a number of sportsbooks have the Jaguars-Chargers sport out there to wager, with Los Angeles a consensus 7-point house favourite. Beyers is having none of it, with Herbert far too precious to the unfold to contemplate posting a line on this sport, but.

“I might have little interest in reserving the Chargers till I do know if the quarterback is taking part in. I am not within the enterprise of taking part in 50/50 with the NFL,” Beyers stated. “We can’t put this sport up till we all know who’s taking part in. The road and whole will not shut wherever close to the place they’re now, 7 and 47.5. The unfold might be 3 factors increased or 3 factors decrease, relying on if Herbert performs.”

Patrick Everson is a sports activities betting analyst for FOX Sports activities and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He beforehand labored for Covers and is a distinguished journalist within the nationwide sports activities betting house. He is based mostly in Las Vegas, the place he enjoys {golfing} in 110-degree warmth. Comply with him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.


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