By Jason McIntyre
FOX Sports activities Betting Analyst
the NFL is again, and Week 1 of the season began off with a bang with upsets and unders galore. However not the whole lot is what it appears, therefore the time period Overreaction Monday.
After watching each sport and digging into the stats, let’s break down a few of what I realized from Week 1. Listed below are my 4 betting classes for followers and gamblers heading into Week 2.
1. Ignore the gradual begins
Tremendous Bowl contenders just like the Rams, Packers and 49ers all obtained beat in Week 1. However the three groups did not simply lose, all of them appeared unimpressive.
The Rams did not rating within the second half at residence; the 49ers could not get into Bears territory on their last 4 drives; the Packers have been blanked within the first half. However context issues.
As Aaron Rodgers famously mentioned, RELAX.
I did not love the Rams coming into this season as a result of they’ve one of many hardest schedules within the NFL. That mentioned, the season-opening consequence got here towards the Tremendous Bowl favourite Buffalo Payments. Los Angeles is a giant favourite towards Atlanta this week, so search for the Rams to get their first win of the yr.
The Packers sputtered on offense, however that was with out each beginning tackles and their high receiver, Allen Lazard. They went 3-for-9 on third downs and 0-2 on fourth. Inexperienced Bay largely appeared inept on the street, but it surely was nearer than the ultimate rating indicated. If the Packers rookie wideout Christian Watson would not drop a wide-open landing or Inexperienced Bay will get in from the one, we might be having a a lot completely different dialog. Extra importantly, do you keep in mind how the Packers misplaced 38-3 in Week 1 final yr earlier than occurring to snag the No. 1 seed within the NFC? Inexperienced Bay ought to get again on observe this week towards Chicago.
Lastly, we have now the Niners. They performed in a monsoon towards the Bears, and their younger QB Trey Lance additionally misplaced his high RB within the first half. General, the 49ers wasted a 10-0 lead, and Lance appeared misplaced. However I will be betting all three favorites this week to bounce again and appear like the Tremendous Bowl contenders we all know them to be.
2. Primetime Unders are a factor
The NFL had three terrific primetime matchups in Week 1, and each sport went beneath the overall. Three extra primetime video games are developing on Sunday and Monday, and we’d see extra of the identical this week.
Cash has poured in on the beneath in Chicago-Inexperienced Bay, plummeting from 45.5 to 41.5. Beneath cash additionally confirmed in Tennessee-Buffalo, dropping the quantity from 51.5 to 48.5. However the Eagles-Vikings might blow that up.
The Eagles’ protection struggled badly final season towards good QBs and needs to run the soccer and management the clock. Minnesota’s protection was surprisingly spectacular towards the Packers final week, holding Aaron Rodgers to seven factors. I am nonetheless taking the beneath on this one. Let’s go for the clear sweep.
3. Belief your eyes: Dallas may be very unhealthy
The least spectacular staff within the NFL in Week 1 wasn’t my Jets, definitely wasn’t the Texans, and Seattle gained! Shocker, but it surely was the Dallas Cowboys — the one staff that did not rating a landing. It was the Dallas Cowboys, who have been the one staff to not get into the pink zone. It was the Dallas Cowboys, the staff that registered just one explosive play (20+ yards), the fewest within the NFL.
Certain, they have been enjoying Tampa’s fierce protection, however with out Dak Prescott, a banged-up offensive line, and a criminally overrated protection final yr, will probably be a protracted yr for the Cowboys. I am a giant information man, however that is one occasion I’m trusting my eyes.
4. Beware the depth of the Buffalo Payments‘ defensive position.
Maybe the wildest defensive stat from the primary week was that the Payments blitzed Matthew Stafford simply as soon as. However they registered essentially the most sacks (7), second most QB knockdowns in Week 1 (7), and fourth most pressures (15).
Buffalo upgraded its defensive position within the offseason, including Von Miller and Daquan Jones, and so they’ve drafted nicely the final two years (Greg Rousseau, AJ Epenesa, Boogie Basham). If you wish to wager on the Payments this season, you’ll be paying a tax as a result of they’re in all probability essentially the most full staff within the NFL. And their means to rotate linemen and hold strain all sport lengthy — who can overlook the shortage of strain within the fourth quarter towards Patrick Mahomes within the playoffs final yr — will result in some dominant fourth quarters and stop groups from coming within the again door.
Jason McIntyre is a FOX Sports activities betting analyst, and he additionally writes in regards to the NFL and NBA Draft. He joined FS1 in 2016 and has appeared on each present on the community. In 2017, McIntyre started producing playing content material on the NFL, school soccer and NBA for FOX Sports activities. He had a playing podcast for FOX, “Coming Up Winners,” in 2018 and 2019. Earlier than arriving at FOX, he created the web site The Massive Lead, which he bought in 2010.
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