NFL odds Week 3: guess Payments-Dolphins

the buffalo payments hit the street to tackle the Miami Dolphins in Week 3 of the NFL season.

Buffalo and Miami are coming off polar reverse Week 2 victories. The Payments dismantled the Tennessee Titans, 41-7, whereas the Dolphins overcame a 21-point fourth quarter deficit to beat the Baltimore Ravens, 42-38.

Which 2-0 workforce will keep undefeated after their AFC East rivalry matchup?

This is all the pieces you want from a betting perspective for the Payments-Dolphins sport, from the purpose unfold, moneyline, complete over/underneath and knowledgeable decide (odds through FOX Guess):

RELATED: High performs from Week 2 of the NFL season

Payments @ dolphins (1 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS)

Level unfold: Payments -5.5 (Payments favored to win by greater than 5.5 factors, in any other case Dolphins cowl)
Moneyline: Payments -227 to win favorites to win (guess $10 to win $14.41 complete); Dolphins +175 underdogs to win (guess $10 to win $27.50 complete)
Complete scoring over/underneath: 53.5 factors scored by each groups mixed

Buffalo and Miami are every 2-0 towards the unfold (ATS) and 2-0 straight-up (SU) this season; the Payments gained and coated as favorites towards the Titans final week, whereas the Dolphins gained as underdogs towards the Ravens final week. Each groups have cut up the O/U this season (1-1).

The Payments are 6-3-1 ATS and 9-1 SU towards the Dolphins underneath head coach Sean McDermott (since 2017), with the over hitting in 5 of these video games (one push). In the meantime, the Dolphins are 16-8-1 ATS and 14-11 SU vs AFC East opponents since 2018, with the underneath hitting in 15 of these video games.

Choose by FOX Sports activities Betting Analyst Warren Sharp:

The Payments protection ranks No. 1 within the NFL, however take a look at who they’ve confronted. Two groups with below-average offenses (Rams No. 20, Titans No. 29).

And importantly, neither of those offenses have a number of receiving threats just like the Dolphins now have.

The Rams have Cooper Kupp, and that is about it, at the very least till they determine a option to get Allen Robinson extra concerned.

Kupp caught 13-of-15 targets for 128 yards and 1 TD, scorching the Payments secondary. However the Rams have nobody else near his prowess from him.

Their No. 2 goal was a decent finish (Higbee) who had caught simply 5-of-11 targets. Their No. 3 goal was a operating again.

And their quarterback was nursing an elbow harm on his throwing arm this offseason, and his head coach determined to name an obscenely run-heavy sport on first down. The runs did completely nothing however arrange the Rams for second and third-and-long conditions.

This previous week, the Payments shut down the Titans, who’ve an excellent worse receiver state of affairs than the Rams.

Their No. 1 goal within the sport was a rookie taking part in his second NFL sport (Treylon Burks). The Titans misplaced all their receiver juice as they dumped AJ Brown and Julio Jones. And when this workforce falls behind and can’t run Derrick Henry, they’re doomed.

And now, the Payments are much more banged up within the secondary.

Buffalo is already with out CB1 Tre’Davious White for at the very least the primary 4 weeks of the season.

Beginning nook Dane Jackson was strapped to a backboard on Monday evening in a scary harm, carted off and brought to the hospital after mendacity immobile on the sphere. He is been launched from the hospital however sustained a brutal head/neck harm.

Beginning security Micah Hyde sustained a neck harm, stayed on the bottom, was taken to the blue medical tent after which carted to the locker room. It was later revealed that Hyde, too, was despatched to the hospital to have his neck harm evaluated and was later launched.

To fight this Dolphins offense, the Payments could have to outscore them.

Luckily, they have been simply nice with doing that vs. the Dolphins.

Of their final seven video games towards the Dolphins, the Payments have scored at least 26 factors and have averaged an insane 37 ppg.

5 of those seven video games have gone over, together with five-of-six when Tua wasn’t injured.

Miami is 0-7 in these video games and simply 2-5 ATS.

Buffalo has scored and scored at will.

And a part of it’s merely the protection that the Dolphins play.

Miami is, by far, the No. 1 most man-heavy workforce within the NFL. Plain and easy, the Fins love taking part in man.

Final 12 months they have been the one workforce to play man over 40% of snaps, they usually did it at a 46% clip.

To date this 12 months, they’re No. 3 within the NFL.

However even worse for them is how a lot they like to blitz.

On early downs within the first three quarters, Miami blitzes on the No. 2 highest charge of any protection.

However they get stress on the No. 2 lowest charge of any protection.

That is a harmful mixture and is an enormous cause why this protection is the No. 2 worst protection towards the go this 12 months, and that features a sport vs. MacJones.

Miami has allowed a league-high 12.2 yards per completion to date this 12 months. It has been an abysmal go protection. And one ill-suited to face Josh Allen.

In opposition to the blitz this 12 months, Josh Allen ranks:

No. 1 in sack/INT charge

No. 2 in first down charge

No. 3 in TDs thrown

No. 4 in success charge

No. 5 in YPA

No. 6 in EPA/att

Josh Allen additionally ranks top-10 vs. man protection.

The underside line is what Miami desires to do defensively merely doesn’t work towards Josh Allen.

PICK: Over 52.5 complete factors scored by each groups mixed at FOX Guess

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