NFL odds Week 3: Experience with the Jaguars and Steelers, different finest bets

By Geoff Schwartz
FOX Sports activities NFL Analyst

One other week is within the guide, which suggests it is one other likelihood for me to speak about my favourite pastime, the previous gridiron.

Now that we’re formally in Autumn and the leaves are starting to fall, that is the primary signal that the NFL season is kicking into gear and the drunk deliriousness of merely having soccer again not suffices. And if you happen to’re champing on the bit to get some wagers in like me, let’s get proper into it.

Listed below are my finest bets for Week 3 of the 2022 NFL season, with odds courtesy of FOX Guess.

Steelers @ Brown’s (8:20 p.m. ET Thursday, Amazon Prime)

This can be a maintain your nostril and wager on a reliable coach spot as a result of Pittsburgh’s offense is putrid. Try these ranks: thirtieth in yards per play, twenty eighth in passing and nineteenth in pink zone scoring. It is onerous to jot down about something they do properly in the meanwhile. The offensive design is boring, uncreative and predictable.

On prime of that, the Steelers are on a brief week. I don’t count on their offense to get a lot going.

Nonetheless, the Browns aren’t reliable to cowl 4 factors in the meanwhile. Sure, they run the ball properly, however they’re dealing with a Steelers protection that may stuff the run.

Granted, the lack of T. J. Watt has harm the Steelers’ speeding protection, particularly the go rush. The dearth of strain ought to give Jacoby Brissette time to go, however do you belief him to go the ball properly towards this Steelers protection? I don’t.

The one manner I really feel comfy on this matchup is by wagering on what I do know.

First, Cleveland struggles in division video games.

Second, Steelers coach Mike Tomlin all the time has his groups prepared for this case. Total, Tomlin’s Steelers are 67% towards the unfold as an underdog and 70% towards the unfold as an underdog off a straight-up loss. His means to inspire him as an underdog is unparalleled.

In case you’re nonetheless not comfy with the 4 factors, you possibly can put the Steelers in a teaser with one other workforce this weekend for some further cushion.

PICK: Steelers (+4 at FOX Guess at time of decide) to lose by fewer than 4 factors (or win outright)

Expectations for Tom Brady’s Bucs with depleted WR core vs. packers? | UNDISPUTED

In a change of plans on Wednesday, Tom Brady practiced regardless of his schedule usually calling for him to relaxation at the present time.

Lions @ vikings (1 p.m. ET Sunday, FOX)

This whole is so excessive, however I have to hammer the over on this contest. The Lions are averaging over 30 factors per sport, however they permit over 30 factors per sport on protection. They’re mainly a Huge 12 workforce.

Simply how dangerous is their protection? Since 2019 they’ve led the league in factors allowed, passing yards allowed and highest opponent passer score allowed.

There are two Kirk Cousins: The quarterback that performs at 1 pm ET and the quarterback who performs on Monday Night time soccer. The quarterback who performs at 1 pm ET completes extra passes, throws for extra yards per try and has manner much less interceptions.

That is the Cousins ​​I count on Sunday towards the Lions. This can be a get-right sport for Cousins ​​after the robust one on Monday night time.

However again to the Lion’s offense. They’ve a particularly highly effective and dynamic speeding assault that leads the NFL in explosive offensive performs by means of the season’s first two weeks.

Alternatively, the Vikings protection is reeling after being gashed by the Eagles on Monday Night time Soccer, and I am certain the Lions are drawing up a plan to use these drained Minnesota defenders’ legs.

I am going to take the over on this sport with two offenses that may transfer the ball towards two defenses which might be struggling.

PICK: Over 53 whole factors scored mixed between each groups at FOX Guess

Jaguars @ chargers (4:05 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS)

The Jaguars are taking part in glorious soccer proper now although they’re 1-1 after two weeks. Soccer Outsiders DVOA metric has Jacksonville because the second most effective workforce within the NFL heading into Week 3.

Head coach Doug Pederson has second-year quarterback Trevor Lawrence taking part in on the stage individuals anticipated of him. He’s finishing 9 % extra passes this season, has extra passing yards per try and has minimize down on dangerous performs.

The Jaguars offensive line and speeding assault is far improved, and they’ll want these tackles to play properly once more this weekend towards a Chargers go rush that may spoil an offensive sport plan.

On the opposite facet of the ball, the Jaguars protection has been excellent up to now this season. They rank fifth in opponent passer score, have compelled at the very least three turnovers in each video games and have particular person gamers reaching their potential — together with go rusher Josh Allen with two sacks and rookie linebacker Devin Lloyd with 17 tackles up to now.

The Chargers may be with out Keenan Allen once more this weekend, however extra importantly, quarterback Justin Herbert is injured. He’s listed as day-to-day with fractured rib cartilage, and whereas he can play by means of the ache, it will get more durable as soon as he’s hit on Sunday.

How efficient can he be by means of the sport? Arduous to know.

The Chargers can try to lean on their run sport for offense, however that has not been good this season up to now. They rank thirty first within the NFL with 2.7 yards per try.

I’ll gladly take a assured Jaguars workforce to cowl the seven factors towards a Chargers workforce that all the time leaves me wanting for extra.

Choose: Jaguars (+7 at FOX Guess) to lose by fewer than 7 factors (or win outright)

Geoff Schwartz performed eight seasons within the NFL for 5 totally different groups. He began at proper deal with for the College of Oregon for 3 seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 choice his senior 12 months. He’s an NFL analyst for FOX Sports activities. Comply with him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.

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